Bernstein analysts predict that the crypto market is currently in a short-term bear market cycle, but a reversal is expected in the first half of 2026. Bitcoin is expected to bottom out at the $60,000 level, the high point of the previous cycle, before establishing a higher price bottom. Bernstein points out that the past two years have been an institutional cycle for Bitcoin, with spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management growing to approximately $165 billion. Despite recent market corrections, institutional participation has remained resilient, and there has been no mining leverage collapse similar to previous cycles. Furthermore, the establishment of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve and potential changes in the leadership of the Federal Reserve could lead to Bitcoin being viewed as a sovereign or reserve asset. Bernstein believes that the current weakness is a late-cycle correction rather than a prolonged winter, and the reversal in 2026 will lay the foundation for Bitcoin's most influential cycle.