Galaxy Digital: Bitcoin may test the 200-week moving average of $58,000 in the coming months.

Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, analyzed that Bitcoin's recent performance has clearly weakened. Between January 28th and January 31st, Bitcoin fell by approximately 15%, with a single-day drop of 10% on January 31st, triggering over $2 billion in long contract liquidations. During this period, the price bottomed out at approximately $75,600, falling below the average cost price of the US Bitcoin ETF at approximately $84,000, and approaching the annual low of approximately $74,400 formed in April 2025. Currently, approximately 46% of the Bitcoin supply is in a loss-making state. The analysis suggests that Bitcoin may further decline to the supply gap bottom near $70,000, and may even test the 200-week moving average of approximately $58,000 and the realized price of approximately $56,000 in the coming weeks to months. These ranges historically correspond to cyclical bottoms and have provided important reference levels for long-term investors. Furthermore, the report points out that although profit-taking by long-term holders has slowed, the market has not yet observed large-scale accumulation by whales or long-term holders. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's recent failure to rise in tandem with traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver has weakened its narrative of "hedging against currency devaluation." Analysts believe that the market may still face downward pressure in the short term, but long-term funds should pay attention to changes in key support levels.