Bitwise CIO: The crypto winter began in January 2025, but was masked by ETF and DAT inflow data; it's about to end.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan published a lengthy article on the X platform stating that the market has been in a crypto winter since January 2025 and may be nearing its end. Bitcoin has fallen 39% from its all-time high in October 2025, and Ethereum has fallen 53%. This is a full-blown crypto winter triggered by factors such as excessive leverage and profit-taking by OGs. Crypto winters typically last about 13 months. For example, Bitcoin peaked in December 2017 and bottomed out in December 2018; subsequently, it peaked again in October 2021 and bottomed out in November 2022. He believes the current "winter" began in January 2025, but this fact has been masked by inflows into ETFs and digital asset vaults (DATs). He analyzed the assets by dividing them into three groups: 1. The first group (BTC, ETH, XRP), supported by substantial ETF/DAT holdings, saw a decline of only 10.3% to 19.9%. 2. The second group (SOL, LTC, LINK), which received ETF approval during 2025, declined by 36.9% to 46.2%. 3. The third group (ADA, AVAX, SUI, DOT), without ETF support, experienced a decline of 61.9% to 74.7%. Data shows that during this period, ETFs and DATs purchased a total of 744,417 bitcoins, worth approximately $75 billion. Without this financial support, the retail market has been in a brutal winter since January 2025. Finally, he stated that positive news is ignored in a bear market but is stored as potential energy. When market sentiment normalizes, this energy may be released strongly, and a strong market rebound is expected soon. Further positive factors depend on strong economic growth driving up risk appetite. The CLARITY Act is a positive factor, and sovereign nations' acceptance of Bitcoin may simply be a matter of time.