Potential Fed Balance Sheet Reform Could Impact Treasury Market

Federal Reserve Chair candidate Walsh suggested last year that an agreement could 'clearly and prudently describe' the size of the Fed's balance sheet, with the Treasury outlining its debt issuance plan. According to Jin10, this reform might only be a bureaucratic adjustment with minimal short-term impact on the $30 trillion Treasury market. However, a significant restructuring of the Fed's over $6 trillion securities portfolio could lead to increased market volatility, depending on the circumstances, and heighten concerns about the Fed's independence. Tim Duy, Chief U.S. Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, commented on the agreement, stating, 'Rather than protecting the Fed, it resembles a yield curve control framework. A public agreement that explicitly synchronizes the Fed's balance sheet with Treasury financing effectively ties monetary operations to the deficit.'