Crypto KOL Murphy posted on X that the Long-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (LTH-RPRL) for Bitcoin has fallen below 1 for the first time in this cycle, a situation last observed on May 9, 2022. Additionally, the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) is also below 1, indicating that long-term holders are not only experiencing losses but are also selling at a loss.
For those who have not yet sold, each fluctuation in Bitcoin's price presents a growing psychological challenge, as the sensitivity of long-term holders to price changes has reached levels similar to those on November 29, 2014, November 3, 2018, and May 25, 2022. Historically, these points have been followed by events that exacerbated panic among long-term holders, marking the final phase of a bear market.
Currently, the market sentiment is characterized by ignoring positive news and amplifying negative developments. Bitcoin appears to be increasingly desensitized to macroeconomic benefits, seemingly influenced by a mysterious force. This force is not controlled by any individual, institution, or entity but rather reflects a consensus issue among the majority of market participants.
Historically, when the LTH-RPRL drops below 1, the probability of Bitcoin entering a prolonged bear market increases significantly. This phase is not defined by the depth of price drops but by the duration of the downturn.
The final phase of a bear market is marked by extreme panic among long-term holders. The key indicator for this is the Entity-Adjusted Long-Term Holder Realized Loss (EA-LTH RL). The larger the scale, the greater the panic among long-term holders. On February 5, when Bitcoin fell to $60,000, the EA-LTH RL reached $680 million, surpassing the panic levels triggered by the LUNA crash in the previous bear market.
Whether this marks the final phase of the bear market remains uncertain. However, if Bitcoin prices drop further and the EA-LTH RL decreases, it could signal the end. If not, as long as the LTH-RPRL remains below 1, opportunities will persist.
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