Haseeb, Managing Partner of Dragonfly, published an article on the X platform stating that by analyzing all token launch data announced by Binance using the Claude Code tool, the results showed no statistically significant difference in performance between tokens launched during bull and bear markets (Mann-Whitney p = 0.81). This means that the performance difference between bull and bear markets is negligible and the timing of token launch is not important. He pointed out that due to the tendency to launch tokens during bull markets and the abundance of funds, there is a sampling bias, and therefore, it is not appropriate to simply observe the proportion of bull market-launched tokens among the top 100 tokens. The study demonstrated the robustness of this conclusion by comparing the relative performance of approximately 200 token projects (excluding RWA, stablecoins, LST, and other non-independently priced tokens) in Binance listing announcements under bull, bear, and neutral market conditions. Furthermore, he added that while launching during a bear market has advantages such as less competition for talent, cheaper service providers, and less competitive pressure from exchange listings, and bull markets are more conducive to token sales, these factors generally offset each other. Solana's launch just four days after the COVID-19 crash in March 2020 is a prime example. Developers should focus on product delivery rather than timing. The original quote was, "It doesn't matter that much when you launch. Just launch."
Miyuki
