Analysis: The bear market is expected to continue until mid-2027. Closely monitor the crossover signal between the 90-day and 365-day moving averages.

Crypto analyst Axel stated in a blog post that the current bear market cycle began at the all-time high of approximately $125,000 in October 2025—a fact confirmed by the Entity-Adjusted Liveliness indicator, which peaked at 0.02676 in December 2025, exhibiting a typical lag compared to price, and is now reversing downwards. Historically, such reversals typically initiate an accumulation phase lasting 1.1 to 2.5 years. The chart clearly shows the previous two accumulation cycles: the 2020 bear market lasted 1.1 years, and the 2022–2024 bear market lasted 2.5 years. Both started in exactly the same way, with the green line reversing from its peak and entering a sustained decline, followed by a price drop. The current pattern is structurally identical. If this historical pattern repeats itself, this accumulation period will last at least until the end of 2026, with a more realistic expectation of until mid-2027. The key confirmation signal is when the 90-day moving average reverses downwards and breaks below the 365-day moving average (0.02622). Until this crossover occurs, the possibility of a medium-term reset and a resumption of the upward trend remains.