Data: Polymarket platform generates $600 million in contracts related to the US-Iran conflict.

Following the US-Israel airstrikes against Iran, the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket quickly launched over ten event contracts related to the situation in Iran, covering topics such as the ceasefire period, the successor to the Supreme Leader, and whether US troops would enter Iran. Since the attacks, the market has attracted approximately $600 million in trading volume. Among them, the contract for the event "Will Khamenei lose his position as Iran's Supreme Leader before March 31?" was 100% settled after Iranian state television confirmed his death, with a trading volume of $45 million. The biggest winner, the account "Curseaaaaaaa," profited approximately $757,000 through a "Yes" position, and four other traders profited over six figures. Furthermore, the largest single event contract is the contract for the event "When will the US launch airstrikes against Iran?", which has accumulated a trading volume of $529 million since its launch on December 22 last year, with a single-day trading volume of $89.6 million on February 28. Subsequent market activity showed that traders were generally betting on a phased resolution to the conflict within weeks: the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran was only 4% before March 2nd, 15% before March 6th, but rose to 61% before March 31st, and reached 78% before April 30th. (CoinDesk)