Bitwise: Bitcoin investors need to hold for at least 3 years to avoid losses; short-term trading has a nearly 50% chance of resulting in a loss.

Digital asset management firm Bitwise Asset Management analyzed price data covering the period from July 17, 2010 to February 11, 2026. Historically, the probability of loss for investors holding Bitcoin for at least three years is only 0.70%. The longer the holding period, the lower the risk of loss; the probability of loss drops to 0.2% for investors holding Bitcoin for 5 years and 0% for those holding it for 10 years. In contrast, investors holding for less than three years face higher risks: the probability of unrealized losses is 47.1% for intraday buyers, 44.7% for those holding for one week, 43.2% for those holding for one month, and even the probability of loss remains at 24.3% for those holding for one year. Bitwise points out that the current Bitcoin price is around $65,000, a drop of about 50% from the October 2025 high. However, the realized price for those holding for three to five years is approximately $34,780, meaning that approximately 90% of investors in this range are still in a state of unrealized profit. (Cointelegraph)