If the February non-farm payrolls data is lackluster, expectations for a Fed rate cut will likely extend into the third quarter.

The US February ADP employment figures and ISM non-manufacturing PMI both exceeded expectations, indicating that the job market, which the Federal Reserve is more concerned about, is becoming more robust. In addition, the Fed had already signaled earlier that it was not in a hurry to cut interest rates. Coupled with the surge in domestic energy prices due to the war, the market's expectation for the next rate cut has been postponed to around September. If the February non-farm payrolls are lackluster or overshadowed by the war, under the foreseeable scenario of a rebound in inflation, the market's expectation for the Fed's first rate cut will be extended to the third quarter.