US non-farm payrolls are expected to cool in February but have not yet stalled; with the shadow of war looming, a Fed rate cut may be a pipe dream.

U.S. job growth may have cooled in February as the surge in healthcare hiring in January is expected to return to normal, though the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. The closely watched jobs report, to be released later by the Labor Department, is likely to paint a picture of a stabilizing labor market. Previously, the labor market had faltered in 2025 due to what economists call uncertainty stemming from President Trump's comprehensive tariff policies. This will further solidify economists' view that the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to resume interest rate cuts, especially given the escalating inflationary threat of war in the Middle East. Economists predict that nonfarm payrolls may have increased by only 59,000 last month, following a gain of 130,000 jobs in January. Forecasts range from a decrease of 9,000 to an increase of 125,000. In addition to the healthcare sector pullback, strikes by 31,000 healthcare workers in California and Hawaii could also weigh on the jobs data. (Jinshi)