Analysts: A brief conflict may limit the upside for the US dollar index; a blockade of the Taiwan Strait remains the biggest variable.

Ebury strategist Matthew Ryan stated in a report that the dollar's recent gains may have limited room to continue if the Middle East conflict is relatively short-lived. He pointed out that the market is currently pricing in a conflict that could last for about a month, based on signals from Trump. In this scenario, the dollar's gains should be limited, and a pullback is likely once the conflict ends. However, broader regional involvement and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz "pose a clear risk." He believes this would lead to a further surge in oil prices, thereby boosting the dollar and impacting risk-sensitive currencies. (Jinshi)