Analysts: Oil prices hit a more than two-year high; the current situation poses a real risk to the global economy.

Oil prices have risen to their highest level in more than two years after Qatar's energy minister warned that oil production in the Gulf region could shut down completely within days. Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon stated that the current situation poses a real risk to the global economy. If this situation persists for more than two weeks, the likelihood of a very significant impact on the energy system and the global macroeconomic outlook will be much greater. If Gulf countries cannot export oil, they will need to store it, and when storage space is exhausted, production will have to cease. Expecting oil prices to exceed $100 per barrel is "realistic," but the key question is how long prices will remain at that level. At that point, governments around the world will likely release their oil reserves, as was done after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Quilter investment strategist Lindsay James stated that a prolonged shutdown of all oil and gas production in the Gulf region is an extreme scenario. Market movements indicate that investors expect the Strait of Hormuz traffic disruption to be resolved quickly, but the risk of the conflict lasting longer than initially anticipated is increasing daily. For households, the pressure will primarily be reflected in energy prices rather than a broad inflationary shock. The greater economic risk comes from persistently high energy costs, which could severely drag down economic growth. (Golden Ten)