Agent of "1011 Insider Whale": The US-Iran war could trigger a 15% oil supply gap, far exceeding historical levels, putting upward pressure on oil prices.

Garrett Jin, an agent for "1011 Insider Whale," stated on the X platform that there is a clear correlation between historical oil supply gaps and oil price increases: in 1973, a supply gap of approximately 7% drove oil prices up by about 300%; in 1979, a gap of approximately 5% drove up prices by about 150%; and in 1990, a gap of approximately 6% drove up prices by about 130%. Currently, the potential supply shock surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is about 15%, far exceeding historical cases. Most institutional models currently assume this shock will last only "a few days to a few weeks," but almost no models anticipate it could last for months. In reality, once the market consensus on the duration is broken, more long positions may be forced into the market, further pushing up oil prices.