Opinion: Increased private equity lending risk in the US, with leading institutions like BlackRock facing redemption pressures, could lead to high-risk lending events.

Crypto KOL Phyrex Ni published an article on the X platform stating that recent private equity credit risks in the US have gradually emerged, specifically as follows: 1. BlackRock's HPS Corporate Lending Fund (approximately $26 billion in size) received redemption requests for approximately 9.3% of its fund units in the first quarter of 2026, amounting to approximately $1.2 billion. The fund's original quarterly repurchase cap was 5%, and this triggered the liquidity cap for the first time, resulting in approximately $620 million in actual redemptions. 2. Blackstone's BCRED received redemption requests for approximately 7.9% of its fund units in the same quarter, amounting to approximately $3.7 billion. Blackstone increased its repurchase cap from 5% to 7% and injected approximately $400 million of internal funds, of which over $150 million came from executives and senior employees. 3. Blue Owl's OBDC II, with approximately $1.6 billion in size, also faces redemption pressure. The fund sold approximately $1.4 billion in assets to North American pension and insurance institutions and changed its original quarterly 5% redemption framework to a maximum return arrangement of approximately 30%, involving about 128 companies across 27 industries. 4. Fitch data in February showed that the average redemption rate of its tracked perpetual unlisted BDCs rose to 4.5% NAV in the fourth quarter of 2025, a significant increase from 1.6% in the previous quarter, indicating that the pressure of capital withdrawal has spread throughout the retail private lending channel. 5. Institutional protective short positions in credit ETFs surged to a historical high, indicating that institutions are hedging against the solvency of underlying borrowers, the authenticity of book valuations, and the feasibility of redemptions. 6. Persistent high interest rates and the Fed's slow rate cuts have increased the difficulty of refinancing, leading to greater default risks and widening credit spreads in private lending. 7. AI infrastructure may also be impacted. As the credit environment tightens, the financing costs of data centers, servers, and supporting networks will rise, the pace of expansion will slow, and the financing pressure on AI-related projects will increase. S&P Global Ratings has identified "AI-driven technology bond issuance, AI valuation risks, and rising leverage in non-bank financial institutions" as key variables for credit market liquidity in 2026. Overall, tight liquidity in private lending has already manifested in several large funds, and if the high-interest-rate environment persists, redemption pressure and default risks may further increase.