The probability of crude oil reaching $105 by the end of March briefly dropped to 22%, a decline of approximately 43% within the day.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, the probability of Polymarket's prediction that "crude oil (CL) will reach $105 by the end of March" has dropped to 22%, with a daily decline of 43% and current trading volume of approximately $2.91 million. WTI crude oil prices are currently hovering around $81.50. Previously, prices strengthened due to an unexpected decline in EIA inventories and geopolitical conflicts, but with macroeconomic uncertainty and a stronger dollar, market expectations for a short-term breakout to higher levels have cooled significantly. In other news, US President Trump stated that recent dialogue between the US and Iran has made progress and has instructed a five-day postponement of military action against Iran, alleviating market concerns about supply shocks. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the forecasting market, seeing changes before pricing.