According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by March 31st briefly surged to 54% on Polymarket before falling back to approximately 16%, indicating significant short-term volatility. Trump had previously stated that US-Iran dialogue was progressing well and that military action against Iranian energy infrastructure had been postponed; however, Iran subsequently denied any direct or indirect contact, calling such statements "psychological warfare." Meanwhile, Israel announced airstrikes on Tehran, further escalating geopolitical tensions and causing a rapid reversal in market expectations. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, anticipating changes before they are priced in.