Goldman Sachs has raised its estimate of the probability of a US recession to 30%.

Goldman Sachs said the probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months has risen to 30% due to soaring oil and gas prices, an increase of 5 percentage points from its previous forecast. The energy price shock, coupled with tighter financial conditions caused by the Middle East conflict and the fading effects of President Trump's major tax laws passed last summer, prompted Goldman Sachs' chief economist, Hatzius, to raise his baseline forecast for the year-end unemployment rate to 4.6%. Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and December. The bank also expects U.S. GDP growth in the second half of this year to be below trend, with an annualized growth rate expected to be between 1.25% and 1.75%. Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for this year earlier on Monday due to the ongoing disruption to energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank said the conflict will push up global inflation and reduce global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points, but in the worst-case scenario, the impact on GDP could double or even triple. (Jinshi)