The probability of "Israel launching an attack on Yemen before March 31, 2026" has increased significantly on Polymarket.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of Israel launching an attack on Yemen before March 31, 2026, has increased significantly on Polymarket. The current probability is 60%, compared to an average of 18.1% over the past 7 days. On March 28, 2026, the Houthi rebels announced a ballistic missile attack on southern Israel. This is the first direct military action by the Houthis against Israeli territory since the recent conflict between Iran and the US and Israel. The group claimed to have struck "sensitive military facilities" in southern Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed detecting a missile from Yemen and stated that it successfully intercepted it, with no casualties reported so far. Houthi spokesman Yahya Sarreya stated that this action was in response to US and Israeli military operations against targets in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Palestine, emphasizing that their actions will continue until the "aggression stops." Houthi officials have recently issued multiple warnings, stating that blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of their "feasible options." Analysts worry that if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is also effectively blocked, following restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, it will sever key oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping routes from the Middle East to Europe and Asia. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the forecasting market, seeing changes before pricing.