Analysis: Bitcoin is approaching the "buy zone" but has not yet shown typical bottoming signals.

While Bitcoin's current price is gradually approaching its historical "buy zone," on-chain data indicates that the market has not yet shown typical bottoming signals. Data shows that the spot price of Bitcoin is approximately $68,000, while the average holding cost across the network is approximately $54,000, representing a premium of about 21%, meaning that most holders are still in a profitable position. Historically, whether it was the 2020 pandemic-induced crash or the 2022 bear market bottom, Bitcoin has fallen below its realized price, resulting in a network-wide unrealized loss and thus forming a strong buy zone. However, the current market has not yet reached this "overall loss" stage. For Bitcoin to fall back to its realized price, it needs to drop further to approximately $54,000, implying a downside potential of about 20%. It is worth noting, however, that this premium has narrowed rapidly. At the end of 2024, when Bitcoin's price was above $119,000, its premium relative to the realized price was as high as approximately 120%, while it has now compressed to 21%, representing one of the fastest convergences in recent years. Furthermore, on-chain indicators also show that the market has not yet completed a sufficient adjustment. For example, the Coinbase premium index has turned negative, reflecting weakening institutional demand in the US. Nevertheless, the current $65,000 to $70,000 range has remained stable despite multiple macroeconomic shocks, and the over $1 billion in ETF inflows in March indicate continued buying support. Overall, Bitcoin is gradually approaching its potential bottom range, but has not yet experienced the historically typical "market clearing" process, and short-term uncertainty remains. (CoinDesk)