Garrett Jin, an insider and agent for BTC OG, recently published an analysis of Trump's national address: This speech is tantamount to a commitment to hot war, and the escalation of the Middle East conflict is irreversible. Jin points out that Trump's claim that "military action is nearing completion and will end in 2-3 weeks" is a domestic political gesture; while threats to strike Iranian power infrastructure and deploy a third carrier strike group are the real signals of action. Easter may become the point of no return for the escalation of the hot war, and the market is far from pricing this in. He emphasizes that this rebound is a short-term squeeze driven by position sizing, not an improvement in fundamentals; there is no way to exit the war, the Hormuz stalemate remains unresolved, the oil supply gap persists, and the risks to importing countries will continue to be exposed. Market reactions have confirmed this judgment: the 6% surge in oil prices reflects the escalation of the conflict, and the weakening of the dollar is only a short-term sentiment. He bluntly states: once a hot war begins, there is no turning back; the world is undergoing a structural transformation, and most participants have not yet begun pricing in this.