On April 3, the market's core issues have shifted from purely war-related risks to a structural impasse characterized by persistent inflation and policy constraints. According to BlockBeats, energy concerns remain unresolved, with Russian exports affected and OPEC+ potentially increasing output. The U.S. has not discussed releasing reserves, and the uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep oil and diesel prices high. Additionally, tariffs on steel, aluminum, and potential pharmaceutical tariffs indicate that cost pressures are spreading from energy to broader manufacturing and consumer sectors, with global supply chain pressures persisting and even expanding.
On the policy front, liquidity support is confirmed to be unavailable. Key Federal Reserve officials are inclined to maintain the status quo, opting to adjust liquidity structures through regulatory tools rather than rate cuts. The IMF has pointed out that there is almost no room for rate cuts in the coming year, indicating a systemic revision of market expectations for policy easing. With inflation driven by energy and employment not yet significantly deteriorating, monetary policy remains constrained, lacking conditions for asset valuation expansion.
In this context, financial behavior is becoming more conservative and short-term focused. Changes in gold reserves and the divergence in fundamentals between technology and traditional industry companies are evident. Bitcoin remains in a passive pricing state, unable to effectively break through the liquidity pressure zone around 69,400, indicating insufficient buying momentum. Meanwhile, liquidity continues to accumulate near 65,500, which could become a major release point if macro pressures intensify.
Overall, the market has entered a "high inflation expectations + policy constraints + war expansion" environment. With liquidity unable to ease, supply chains disrupted, and geopolitical risks lacking resolution, price fluctuations increasingly reflect capital redistribution. In the short term, the market is expected to remain in an unstable equilibrium.
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