Oxford Economics: The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice this year to support the labor market.

Oxford Economics states that the US March employment figures significantly overestimated the strength of the pre-war job market, as the data simultaneously reflected declines in both the labor force and household employment. Job growth will slow as the war in Iran impacts real economic activity. The war's impact on inflation is immediate, but its negative effects on consumer spending, business investment, and hiring will become more apparent in the coming months. Oxford Economics' baseline forecast remains that the Federal Reserve will ignore the one-off shock of rising oil prices this year and cut interest rates twice to guard against any future weakness in the labor market. (Jinshi)