Polymarket's probability that "Claude Mythos's model will be released before April 30th" has dropped to 28%.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of a Claude Mythos model being released in April on Polymarket has plummeted to 28%, a drop of 26% in the past 7 days, with approximately $42,000 in bets. The probability of a Claude Mythos model being released in June is currently reported at 53%, with approximately $11,600 in bets. The event contract rules are as follows: if Anthropic releases "Claude Mythos" or confirms that it is the same model mentioned in the leak, and that model is made available to the public on a specified date (Eastern Time), the market will decide "yes". Otherwise, the market will ultimately decide "no". Eligible models must be named "Claude Mythos" (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, etc.), or confirmed to be the same model mentioned by Anthropic in the leak, or confirmed by consensus through credible reporting. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not be included in this market's evaluation unless confirmed to be the same model mentioned in the leaked information. For this market to be officially recognized, eligible models (as defined above) must be online and publicly available, including through open testing or open rolling registration. Closed testing or any form of private access does not qualify. Previously, Anthropic announced a ban on free subscriptions, and OpenClaw requires pay-as-you-go billing or API usage for Claude. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.