Polymarket reports that the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 has risen to 28%, a 10% increase in the last 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by April 30th on Polymarket briefly surged to 32%, currently trading at 28%, a 10% increase in the last 24 hours. The total trading volume for the "When Will the US and Iran Reach a Ceasefire?" event contract has now exceeded $95 million. The contract's rules state that if the US and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement (defined as a public announcement and mutual agreement to cease direct military action) before a specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will mark it as "yes"; otherwise, it will be "no." A "formal ceasefire agreement" requires explicit public confirmation from both the US and Iranian governments that they have agreed to cease military hostilities against each other, or overwhelming consensus confirmed through media reports. Currently, the US, Iran, and regional mediators are urgently negotiating a 45-day temporary ceasefire agreement, aiming to create space for a permanent end to the war. The urgency stems from Trump's ultimatum, extending the original Monday deadline by 20 hours, with the new deadline set for 8 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday. The discussions reportedly focus on a two-phase plan: the first phase involves a 45-day temporary ceasefire during which both sides will initiate in-depth negotiations on a permanent ceasefire, which could be further extended if progress is smooth; the second phase involves reaching a final agreement, which will cover the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the disposal of Iran's highly enriched uranium (including removal from Iran or dilution). Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing them in.