A major whale (investor) has purchased $527,000 worth of shares on the "Iranian regime will fall on June 30" stock, and is currently at a loss of $345,000.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, a whale with the address 0xa7d1...b824 has purchased $527,000 worth of bets predicting the collapse of the Iranian regime on June 30th, and has already incurred a loss of $345,000. Previously, this whale had purchased $176,000 worth of bets predicting a US invasion of Iran before March 31st and $148,000 worth of bets predicting the collapse of the Iranian regime before March 31st, both of which failed. According to the market's rules, the "yes" criteria for this event are extremely stringent: the current ruling system of the Islamic Republic of Iran (such as the Supreme Leader's Office, the Guardian Council, and the Revolutionary Guard led by clerics) must be dissolved, paralyzed, or replaced by a completely different governance system by June 30, 2026. The judgment must be based on a recognized consensus from authoritative media confirming that the regime has lost actual control over the majority of the population. The rules explicitly state that regular political elections, internal reforms, or power transitions do not meet the criteria. Even in the event of an internal coup, as long as the core structure of the Islamic Republic is preserved, the market will still settle for "no." Furthermore, the loss of partial territory or challenges from anti-government forces do not constitute "collapse" unless they render the regime unable to govern the majority of the population. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.