Polymarket's probability that "the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by May 31" is only 37%, and the market has fallen 9% in the last 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, Polymarket's probability of "the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by May 31st" is only 37%, a 9% drop in 24 hours. The contract rules for this event state that if the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals ("vessel arrivals") in the Strait of Hormuz equal to or greater than 60 on any date between the market's creation and May 31, 2026, the market will be rated "Yes"; otherwise, it will be rated "No". Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers; vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. According to Xinhua News Agency, the US military announced it will begin implementing a blockade of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz, and any unauthorized entry into or departure from the blockade area may be intercepted, diverted, and detained. In addition, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed support for Trump's decision to impose a naval blockade on Iran, adding that his government is maintaining full coordination with Washington on the matter. According to a video statement released by the Prime Minister's office, Netanyahu stated at a cabinet meeting: "Iran has violated the rules, and President Trump has decided to impose a naval blockade." "We certainly support this firm stance, and we are maintaining continuous coordination with the United States." Odaily Seer continues to focus on prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing them in.