Polymarket's probability that "the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by April 30" has dropped to 30%, and the index has fallen 24% in the last 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by April 30th on Polymarket has dropped sharply to 30%, a 24% decrease in 24 hours. As of now, the trading volume for this event contract has exceeded $15.864 million. The contract rules state that if the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals (“Vessel Arrivals”) in the Strait of Hormuz on any date between the market's creation and May 31, 2026, the market will be rated “Yes”; otherwise, it will be rated “No”. Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers; vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Due to the US's maritime blockade of Iran and its excessive demands in negotiations, Iran has not yet agreed to hold the next round of talks with the US. Iran emphasized that the main condition for continuing negotiations is that the US "avoid making excessive demands," otherwise Iran "is unwilling to waste time on protracted and meaningless negotiations." Several ships attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz but ultimately turned back. The maritime news website "Tanker Tracker" posted on social media that two Indian vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz were forced back by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, during which firing occurred. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.