Polymarket Prediction on Trump's Hormuz Strait Blockade Decision

A prediction event on Polymarket is drawing attention as a user with an 81% success rate, known as @Pajamapants, has invested $40,000 betting that U.S. President Donald Trump will not lift the blockade of the Hormuz Strait by April 30. According to Odaily, the average purchase price for this prediction was 68.5¢. The rules stipulate that if Trump, the U.S. government, or military officially announces the end of the blockade by 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on the specified date, the market will resolve to 'Yes.' Otherwise, it will resolve to 'No.' The announcement must clearly state that the U.S. has lifted or will lift the blockade by the specified date, or use equivalent language indicating the blockade has ceased or will cease. Statements merely describing actions inconsistent with a blockade, such as 'Iran resumes shipping through the Hormuz Strait,' without explicitly stating the blockade's end, are insufficient. Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks do not qualify. A written public statement by Trump, such as a post on his Truth Social account, would qualify, as would a video posted on his social media. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or its representatives, though credible consensus reporting may also be used. The market will be determined solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. The effectiveness of the blockade or the resumption of maritime traffic will not be considered without a qualifying announcement.