Analysis: Bitcoin's "quantum threat" is manageable; potential $145 billion in selling pressure may be a non-systemic risk.

Discussions about the potential threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin's security have intensified again. Analyst James Check points out that while quantum computing can theoretically crack elliptic curve signatures, its impact on the market may be overestimated. Data shows that approximately 1.7 million BTC (about $145 billion) are stored in early "Satoshi-era" addresses. If their private keys were compromised, it could create potential selling pressure. However, from a market liquidity perspective, this scale is not unbearable: in a bull market, long-term holders typically sell between 10,000 and 30,000 BTC daily, meaning the aforementioned amount is equivalent to two to three months of regular profit-taking. Furthermore, exchanges see an average monthly inflow of approximately 850,000 BTC, and the nominal trading volume in the derivatives market could cover this amount in just a few days. Historical data shows that in the most recent bear market, over 2.3 million BTC changed hands in a single quarter, far exceeding the potential "quantum risk," but this did not trigger a systemic collapse. Analysts believe that even if a concentrated release occurs, it is more likely to bring about short-term volatility rather than a structural shock. Meanwhile, entities with the capability to acquire relevant assets are more likely to adopt a strategy of selling in batches and hedging to mitigate market impact. Overall, the core issue of the "quantum threat" may not lie in the selling pressure itself, but rather in governance responses, such as whether to restrict the flow of assets to relevant addresses through protocol upgrades. (CoinDesk)