The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting before April 29th on Polymarket has dropped to 16%, a 39% decrease in 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, Polymarket data shows that the predicted probability of a "US-Iran diplomatic meeting before April 29th" has fallen to 16%, a brief drop of 39%. Market rules define a meeting as "yes" if US and Iranian representatives hold a formal diplomatic meeting before 11:59 PM ET on April 29th. A diplomatic meeting is defined as a formal meeting between representatives of both sides in an official capacity and with authorization, including indirect face-to-face meetings through mediators, but excluding brief greetings or chance encounters for non-diplomatic purposes. The meeting must be in-person and recognized by the government or reported by credible media. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing them in.