Arthur Hayes: Predicts Bitcoin may experience a healthy correction of 20%-30% in March

Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, published an article analyzing the current trends in the cryptocurrency market and its potential risks. It pointed out that although the cryptocurrency market is in the early stages of a bull market, investors need to remain alert to upcoming market fluctuations and adjust strategies accordingly. Hayes said he is paying attention to three key variables that will converge in March this year: changes in the balance of the U.S. Reverse Repurchase Program (RRP), whether the Bank Financing Program (BTFP) is renewed, and whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Hayes predicts that Bitcoin will see a healthy correction of 20% to 30% in early March. If the US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF has begun trading, the correction may be even greater. It said that if hundreds of billions of fiat currencies are expected to flow into these ETFs in the future, Bitcoin prices may climb to $60,000 or even approach its 2021 all-time high of $70,000. However, after reaching this high, he foresees that Bitcoin may face a 30% to 40% correction due to the shortage of US dollar liquidity. This is why he cannot buy Bitcoin until the March decision date has passed. Hayes said he would try to sell at the highs in late February and buy a large number of put options in early March, choosing options expiring on June 28 rather than options expiring on March 29 to reduce the risk. The impact of time value on profits. He planned to try to capture the market bottom and close his position during the significant market correction that began around March 12th (between the 12th and 20th). If the policy call is correct but Bitcoin prices maintain or rise, Hayes will immediately close the put option position. By the end of March, the market will return to normal. As a result, Hayes will resume selling U.S. Treasuries and buying Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.