In a May 19 article on X, analyst "ELI5 of TLDR" said that five on-chain indicators show that the crypto bull run has just begun, specifically:
- Bitcoin market dominance exceeds 56%: Historically, cryptocurrency bull runs have begun with high Bitcoin dominance, and most traders have already sold a large number of altcoins in the previous bear market cycle. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin market dominance is slightly above 56%. The indicator has been above 50% since October 2023.
- Bitcoin MVRV Z-score is below 6: According to the LookIntoBitcoin chart, the Bitcoin MVRV Z-score, which compares the current market value of an asset to its historical average, usually peaks around 6 during the peak of the cycle. Currently, the indicator is less than half of it and has not exceeded 6 since March 2021.
- Puell Multiple has not yet exceeded 3: Puell Multiple is another indicator that coincides with the peak of the cycle, but it has not yet reached a high point. The metric is calculated by dividing the daily value of bitcoin produced by the annual moving average of that value. The Puell Multiple fell below 1 after the April 20 halving, according to Coinglass. Peaks above 3 typically coincide with cycle tops, reaching just 2.4 during the 2024 price rally in mid-March.
-HODL Waves: A chart showing how much BTC is held by different groups based on HODL Waves is also bullish for Bitcoin, according to LookIntoBitcoin. Realized Cap HODL Waves offer a macro view of how much Bitcoin is held by people who bought recently compared to the period before. The decline in the peak of the incoming wave suggests that selling pressure has been exhausted and there may be more room to rise.
-Bitcoin Miner Revenue Per Hash: This metric essentially shows how much miners are earning through proof of work. While it will decline over time as mining difficulty increases, ELI5 notes that the past two spikes to $0.3/Th/s both occurred during previous market cycle peaks. (Cointelegrah)
Bitcoinist