Cycle Capital published an article to analyze the selling pressure of BTC in Mentougou.
Data shows that as of July 12, 138,000 BTC are still in the account address of Mentougou, which means that the selling pressure of Mentougou has not actually entered the market. The decline on July 5 is part of the realization of the expected decline in the selling pressure of Mentougou. The article analyzed that Cycle Capital believes that the creditors of Mentougou will sell some BTC, but they should not sell all of them. If the compensation of Mentougou is sold out within a month, the selling pressure faced by the market will be highly similar to the selling of the German government, and the amount and time of the selling are similar. According to the current demand for ETFs, it cannot provide sufficient carrying capacity, and the price of BTC may fall further. If the compensation of Mentougou lasts longer (2-3 months), the number of BTC entering the market every day will not be particularly large, and it will not cause a one-time decline. However, due to the continued expectation of selling pressure, there may be a period of volatility to digest the selling through volatility. This also means that it is difficult for the main rising wave to come in the short term. At present, only 1,545 tokens of Mentougou have been transferred to the exchange, and the rest are still in Mentougou's account. It can be considered that the actual selling pressure has not yet entered the market. When the BTC held by Mentougou is distributed to several trading platform addresses on a large scale, it may cause a large panic drop, thus forming a plunge. When specific individuals sell, due to dispersion and difficulty in tracking and observation, it may not necessarily cause a significant drop in prices.
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