JPMorgan: Cryptocurrency rally unlikely to last, Trump presidency would benefit Bitcoin and gold

JPMorgan analysts say any rebound in cryptocurrency prices is likely to be tactical (temporary and strategic) rather than the start of a durable uptrend. They note that Bitcoin’s current price of around $67,500 is high compared to its production cost of around $43,000 and the volatility-adjusted price of gold, which is around $53,000. The divergence between Bitcoin’s price and JPMorgan’s volatility-adjusted gold price “suggests mean reversion to around the zero line, limiting the potential for long-term gains in Bitcoin’s price,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note Thursday. The analysts reiterated that cryptocurrencies are expected to rebound from August as liquidations decrease after July. They note that Bitcoin futures have recently been weak due to the liquidations of Gemini and Mt. Gox creditors and the sale of seized Bitcoin by the German government. Analysts say these liquidations are likely to subside after July and expect Bitcoin futures to rebound from August, in line with the recent gains in gold futures. "We believe momentum traders such as commodity trading advisors have played a major role in driving gold futures. Gold's momentum signal surged in July to overbought territory last April," the analysts said. JPMorgan analysts said gold is expected to benefit from Trump's possible re-election as president. Analysts said some investors believe Trump is more favorable to cryptocurrency companies and regulation than the current Biden administration. They added that Trump's potential trade policies could lead to more diversified investments in gold by emerging market central banks, especially the People's Bank of China.