CICC: The Federal Reserve’s September rate cut is a high probability event

According to a CICC research report, the overall tone of this Fed meeting was dovish, and several wording adjustments hinted at the approach of a September rate cut. However, we also emphasize that being able to cut interest rates does not mean that they will be cut many times, which is also the "speciality" of this round of interest rate cuts determined by this round of the US economic cycle. It is precisely because of the above special features that compared with previous interest rate cuts, which have similar impact paths, the difference this time is mainly reflected in the rhythm, which may be faster and more advanced. Failure to understand this may lead to "doing the opposite" in trading. Judging from the statement of this meeting and Powell's speech at the press conference after the meeting, the Fed gave further hints about the September rate cut, emphasizing that inflationary pressure has eased, and emphasizing the balance of employment and inflation risks, rather than just inflation risks, all of which imply that if nothing unexpected happens (inflation continues to fall before the September rate cut), a September rate cut should be a high probability event.