Matrixport: Bitcoin is expected to have a positive outlook in the fourth quarter and a breakthrough is expected in the coming weeks

Matrixport said in its report that Bitcoin is optimistic about the fourth quarter. The report pointed out that Bitcoin is experiencing its most challenging quarter in the traditional sense as it is in the middle of the third quarter. Bitcoin price has begun to lose momentum recently, and with the upcoming weak period, the challenging trading environment may continue for several weeks. However, Bitcoin is expected to perform well in the fourth quarter. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's trading range is narrowing, indicating that it will soon break out of the consolidation period. Based on the expectation of Fed rate cuts and the positive fourth quarter, coupled with the possible boost from the results of the US presidential election, we expect Bitcoin to break out in the coming weeks. As expected, the Fed did not adjust interest rates. Fed Chairman Powell has said that if inflation develops as expected, it is possible to decide to cut interest rates at the September meeting. Our inflation model also predicts that CPI will gradually fall over the next 12 months. The Fed's rate cuts may continue for several quarters, with a 25 basis point reduction at each meeting. This will provide liquidity and stimulus to risk assets such as Bitcoin. The current interest rate is 5.25%, and the inflation rate is 3.0%, and the difference between the two reflects the restrictive interest rate policy of the Fed. This means that central banks may cut interest rates significantly over the next 12 months. Bitcoin is about to enter its most challenging two months. According to historical patterns, August returns usually move sideways, while September enters a period of weak performance. Several factors may cause this cyclical pattern, including lower trading volume during the summer vacation and market uncertainty caused by traders waiting to see economic indicators and central bank policy decisions in the fall. If Trump wins the election, the series of policies and actions he will take will likely boost the crypto asset market. His administration may take a more favorable regulatory stance on crypto assets, thereby reducing regulatory uncertainty and promoting innovation. Although Trump did not announce plans to use Bitcoin as a reserve asset as rumored, his attendance at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference still sent a positive signal.