Institutional analysis: The Fed's bet on a sharp rate cut may ease

Institutional forecast models show that the pace of expansion in the U.S. labor market may slow, which may hint at an overall cooling trend. But if today's non-farm payrolls report is better than expected, concerns about a hard landing may subside and the sudden risk aversion in the market will ease. The forecast model shows that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States will increase modestly to 231,000 in July from 206,000 in June, higher than the general expectation of 175,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates in the coming months, and the possibility of a sharp rate cut this year is increasing. Nevertheless, the U.S. economy has shown signs of deceleration, but there have been no major interruptions. If this continues, the stock market sell-off may be a bit excessive, and bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply may be slightly relaxed. (Jinshi)