The sharp declines in crypto and stock prices over the past few days can be attributed to both macroeconomic and crypto-specific factors, with the former appearing to be the more dominant cause at this point.
From a macroeconomic perspective, Wall Street has seen a lot of volatility over the past week. Major stock indices and stock market futures fell sharply over the weekend as fears of a recession grew. These concerns were exacerbated by the release of the U.S. jobs report on Friday, which raised concerns about the extent of economic growth. In addition, ongoing geopolitical tensions have also added to market uncertainty and instability.
Specifically, in the case of crypto assets, the broad market sell-off sparked by recession fears has led to a reallocation of capital from riskier assets, which crypto assets are still largely viewed as riskier. This trend has been further complicated by the recent dynamics of the U.S. presidential election, which some market participants believe could be detrimental to crypto assets as an asset class. Finally, in crypto markets, summers have historically been muted and yielded lower returns than other months of the year. These seasonal factors may also be at play at this time.
Despite these challenges, we do not believe this indicates a long-term negative trend for crypto asset markets. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in September, which should improve the outlook for the U.S. economy. Furthermore, with some time to go until the presidential election, the potential for market volatility remains high. As the election approaches, we may see markets impacted in both directions as candidates clarify their stance on crypto assets.