Macquarie: Base case for September rate cut is 25 basis points

David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Bank, said that today's US report is not as favorable for anti-inflation as the one in June, but that report set a very high standard. Overall, this report provides more evidence that the anti-inflation trend remains. It should provide the FOMC with more evidence that the potential increase in inflation that occurred in the first quarter of 2024 is temporary and has reversed. There is nothing here to stop the Fed from cutting interest rates in September. The pace of easing will depend largely on the upcoming data, with inflation and employment data being particularly important. Our baseline expectation for a rate cut in September is 25 basis points. (Jinshi)