CICC: The Fed shifted its focus from prices to employment and basically declared victory in the fight against inflation

CICC commented on the speech of Fed Chairman Powell at Jackson Hole, saying, 1. It is basically clear that the September rate cut is a done deal, which is in line with expectations. CME interest rate futures include a 76% probability of a 25bp rate cut in September and a 24% probability of a 50bp rate cut. 2. The Fed's focus has shifted from prices to employment, and it has basically declared victory in the fight against inflation (saying that inflation expectations have been well anchored), and assessed the job market as no longer overheated, balanced, and with rising risks. 3. It did not mention how much the interest rate will be cut in the future, and it still depends on the data. A 50bp rate cut is not realistic at present, and at least it depends on the non-farm data next month. Powell also does not think that the rise in unemployment is a deterioration in the job market, and believes that it is mainly due to more people entering the labor market and slowing recruitment. The attitude towards the job market is: observation and vigilance. (Jinshi)