Speculative traders turn bearish on dollar for first time since February

Hedge funds, asset managers and other participants in the futures market were bearish on the dollar in the week ended Aug. 27, according to the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The last time a net short dollar position was held was in February, when traders prematurely priced in about six rate cuts in 2024. The dollar fell 1.6% in August, its biggest monthly drop so far this year. Traders have been bidding down the dollar and Treasury yields on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points in September. But this time, Fed officials have made clear their intention to start cutting rates for the first time since 2020. Swap traders are now pricing in a full percentage point in rate cuts from the Fed this year.