Commerzbank: The Fed’s September rate cut has been priced in, and weak non-farm data may cause further pressure on the US dollar

Volkmar Baur, currency analyst at Commerzbank, said the dollar could come under further pressure if the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data released today is significantly weak, which could reignite concerns about a U.S. recession and prompt the market to price in a greater likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting. A stronger report would ease those concerns, increase the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut and boost the dollar. If the data meets expectations, it would clear the way for the Fed to start cutting rates this month, but this has already been priced in, so the dollar could recover some of its losses this week. (Jinshi)