Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 mark ahead of a widely expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this week. The Fed’s upcoming policy changes have kept global markets on edge.
The first U.S. rate cut in more than four years signals easier financial conditions, which is typically a positive backdrop for riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. But investors are unsure about the magnitude of Wednesday’s rate hike or how the market will react to the latest forecasts from Fed officials, known as the dot plot, and a briefing from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
“Rate cuts are less important than the signals from the press conference and the latest dot plot,” said Sean McNulty, head of trading at liquidity provider Arbelos Markets. “If the guidance and press conference are clearly dovish, we would expect bitcoin to rise.”
Bitcoin prices rose 10% in the seven days to Sunday, the biggest weekly gain since July, which may reflect a revival in bets on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed.
In the bitcoin options market, traders are pricing in a “significantly greater weight than we have seen recently” to the Fed meeting, said Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, a provider of liquidity for trading in digital asset derivatives.
Arguably, the outlook for monetary policy has become the primary factor driving Bitcoin’s short-term performance, overshadowing (at least for now) the impact of the U.S. presidential election. (Bloomberg)