K33 analyst: FTX compensation will have a mild impact on the market, and may start at the end of this quarter and last until the beginning of the first quarter of 2025

K33 analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman estimate that payments will begin at the end of this quarter and continue until the beginning of the first quarter of 2025, within 60 days of the court's effective date, which remains uncertain but is expected to be in mid-November. Of the $14.4 billion to $16.3 billion in compensation vaccines, analysts estimate that $3.9 billion has been purchased by credit funds and is unlikely to return to the market, and about 33% of the remaining compensation is owned by sanctioned countries, insiders, and people who have not been KYC verified and cannot obtain claims. That leaves $8 billion, of which they expect 20% to 40% to be deposited in the cryptocurrency market, or about $2.4 billion in the middle of the range because "FTX's trader base is composed of aggressive risk-takers who are native to cryptocurrencies. However, this process is likely to unfold in multiple waves next year, which means its overall impact on the crypto market may be mild. (TheBlock)