Overview of key macro events next week: Fed officials will continue to speak, and uncertainty about interest rate cuts will increase

This week, comments from Fed officials such as Williams, Goolsbee and Barkin suggested that they believe that the September CPI is a negligible inflation data, while Bostic said in an interview that he would consider not cutting interest rates in one of the two remaining meetings this year. However, the market still seems to be quite confident that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points as usual at its meeting next month, but the Fed will not be as aggressive as previously thought. You can continue to pay attention to the views of Waller, Kugler and others next week. There is a lack of important US economic data in the first half of next week, and the market will not get the US September retail sales data until next Thursday. The market's reaction may be simple. Data that is unexpectedly higher than expected will support the US dollar, and vice versa. CFTC data showed that as of October 8, speculative market participants including hedge funds, asset management companies and other institutions cut their bets on a weaker US dollar from $13.6 billion in the previous week to about $9.4 billion. Geopolitical risks brought about by the conflict in the Middle East have also driven demand for other safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar and the Swiss franc. The US dollar has risen by more than 2% in less than two weeks in October. Foreign exchange experts at Credit Agricole revealed that recent meetings with clients have shown that the rise of the US dollar so far in October has made foreign exchange investors wonder whether it represents the return of the title of "King of the Dollar". Macro events worth paying attention to next week include: Monday 23:00, US New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations for September; Tuesday 03:00, Fed Governor Waller speaks on economic prospects; Tuesday 23:30, 2024 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks at an event hosted by New York University Stern School of Business and participates in a dialogue; Wednesday 20:30, US September import price index monthly rate; Wednesday 01:05, Fed Governor Kugler speaks Thursday 23:00, 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee delivers a welcome speech at an annual meeting; Thursday 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 12, US September retail sales monthly rate, US 10 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for September; Friday 07:30, Japan's September core CPI annual rate; Friday 10:00, China's third quarter GDP annual rate, China's September total retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year, China's September industrial added value above designated size year-on-year; Friday 22:00, Kashkari, 2026 FOMC voting member and Chairman of the Minneapolis Fed, delivered a speech.