Analysis: Bitcoin's October start is flat, but may start seasonal rally in the second half of the month

Bitcoin rose to a two-week high today. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, a provider of liquidity for digital asset derivatives trading, said: "The market may view China's stimulus as positive news for Bitcoin, as capital flows from Bitcoin to Chinese stocks were previously believed to have weighed on the price of cryptocurrencies." The US presidential election may provide another support for digital assets. In the past few days, prediction markets have shifted to believe that Republican candidate Trump, who supports cryptocurrencies, has a higher chance of winning than Democratic rival Vice President Harris. Meanwhile, Mt.Gox last week postponed the creditor repayment deadline for its remaining assets by one year to October 31, 2025. Arkham Intelligence estimates that its remaining assets are about $2.9 billion. The delay eased concerns about oversupply as creditors seek to sell bitcoin to repay. Benjamin Celermajer, co-chief investment officer of Magnet Capital, said: "The recent improvement in Trump's polls will amplify the market's acceptance and the positive impact of good news on prices. Good news such as Mt.Gox's delayed compensation plan will receive a more positive response." Data shows that Bitcoin has risen by an average of 20% in October over the past 10 years, but this October started weakly and the trend has hardly changed. Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC, wrote in a report: "Historical data shows that seasonal strength in the crypto market in October usually tends to the second half of the month." (Bloomberg)