Moody's: Latest economic data could boost Harris' chances

While Trump has a clear advantage in prediction markets, those betting on Trump may want to consider the latest economic data, which suggests Harris could benefit from substantial tailwinds as the incumbent party's nominee. This is the conclusion reached by analysts at Moody's Analytics based on research on past presidential elections. Justin Begley, an economist at Moody's Analytics, said: "Analytical models indicate that the winner of this election is still unclear. It can be seen that because four states - Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, accounting for a total of 57 electoral votes - are considered to be uncertain,” a recent simulation conducted for a client showed that since last year. Mortgage rates, which have fallen significantly since then, and continued declines in gas prices are improving Harris' odds. Rising household income may also help improve Harris' odds. "Harris's projected popular vote advantage increased by an average of 0.2 percentage points nationally, largely due to upward revisions to our forecasts of real household income in each state," Begley said. Results from 1,000 runs of the model showed a Harris win. The probability is 55.5%. (Golden Ten)