Fudan University Complex Decision Analysis Center: Trump is very likely to win the US presidential election again

The Center for Complex Decision Analysis at Fudan University released a prediction of the 2024 U.S. presidential election based on computer simulation. The results show that Trump is very likely to win the U.S. presidential election again (with a probability of more than 60%). The research team said that the prediction is mainly based on the simulation technology of behavioral agent modeling (ABM). Our prediction is divided into three steps: (1) Through simulation prediction based on ABM, we obtained the distribution of votes and the ownership of electoral votes in 8 key states in the United States (due to budget constraints, we selected 8 key states); (2) Through 1 million rounds of Monte Carlo simulation, we obtained the tracking poll prediction results and the ownership of electoral votes in the remaining 42 states and Washington, D.C.; (3) The two results are summarized to finally obtain the overall prediction results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Our ABM prediction covers eight key states (these eight states are the states where the gap between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party is less than 5% in the 2020 election). The specific prediction results for the eight key states (based on ABM simulation predictions) are as follows: Trump will win: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin. Harris will win: Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina.