Analyst: This US election will not change the long-term macro market outlook

Michael Brown, an analyst at Pepperstone, said a Trump victory could focus the market on reflation, expected tax cuts and potential tariffs. Initial market reactions may include an appreciation of the dollar and a decline in Treasury bonds. Expectations of reduced regulatory burdens could boost stocks, especially energy and defense stocks. He said a Harris victory could lead to a weaker dollar as Trump-related hedging operations are unwound and trade-sensitive foreign exchange markets will "breathe a sigh of relief." Expectations of more expansionary fiscal policy could put pressure on Treasury bonds, while concerns about stricter regulation could put pressure on stocks. However, declines may be quickly absorbed on dips, and clean energy and technology stocks may perform better. Much depends on the composition of Congress. For those who wonder whether this election will change the long-term macro or market outlook, Brown's answer is "absolutely not." (Jinshi)